A mere eight weeks ago when the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.
As per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
